The 2011 Melbourne Cup shapes up as one of the most intriguing Cups in recent memory. There aren’t many Aussies in the race but the evenness of the Europeans means there are many winning chances.
Americain (barrier 15) Price: $4.40
For: Last year’s winner is one of the best stayers in the world. The big expanses at Flemington suit him down to the ground but he showed last start at Moonee Valley and last year at Geelong that he can adapt to our style of racing. He’s in great form and going better than last year. Huge player. Deserving favourite.
Against: Americain must lug the top weight of 58 kilograms. The last horse to carry that weight to victory in the Cup was Makybe Diva in 2005. Americain will attempt to join Archer (1861, 1862) Peter Pan (1932, 1934), Rain Lover (1968, 1969), Think Big (1974, 1975) and Makybe Diva (2003-2005) as the only multiple winners of the great handicap.
Jukebox Jury (barrier 6) Price: $12
For: Jukebox Jury has accounted for most of the internationally trained gallopers in this race this season. He is clearly a classy type and can run a strong two miles.
Against: For his dominant win in the Kergolay in France in August Jukebox Jury is punished by meeting horses like Manighar, Americain, Dunaden and Red Cadeaux poorly at the weights this time. For example, Dunaden carries 2.5 kilograms less than Jukebox Jury in the Cup off their Kergolay run. In the Kergolay they carried the same weight.
Jukebox Jury likes to lead. The last leader to win the Melbourne Cup was Might and Power in 1997. It is rare for a horse lead all the way in the Melbourne Cup.
Dunaden (barrier 13) Price: $8
For: Dunaden was dominant in winning the Geelong Cup. He drops 3.5 kilograms into this. Last year Americain won at Geelong in similar style before dropping 3.5 kilograms for his runaway Cup win. Dunaden is in great form, is weighted to win the race and is a going to run a strong two miles.
Against: Dunaden’s jockey Craig Williams will need to have a VCAT appeal go his way to ride the horse in the race. Williams is in great form having already won the Caulfield Cup, Geelong Cup and Cox Plate this season. Williams was the best jockey at last year’s Flemington carnival.
UPDATE: Williams is out of the Melbourne Cup with his appeal to VACT unsuccessful. Christophe Lemaire will ride Dunaden.
Dunaden’s turn of foot isn’t his strength. He will need a solid pace in the race to ensure he isn’t left flat-footed. Lucky for his connections, the Cup is always run at a true speed.
Drunken Sailor [barrier 8] Price: $35
For: Drunken Sailor is in career-best form. This season he ran-down Jukebox Jury when winning the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood. He ran tenth in the Cup last year but is going better this time around. The two miles won’t pose a problem. His run in the Caulfield Cup was encouraging enough to suggest he can figure here.
Against: Drunken Sailor probably lacks the class to win this race. If Top 10 betting was available, I’d be happy to back Drunken Sailor to do that.
Glass Harmonium (barrier 23) Price: $35
For: Glass Harmonium couldn’t have tried harder on Saturday in the Mackinnon. He fought like a caged lion to hold off Mourayan who I think can win the Cup. Glass Harmonium is consistent and providing he jumps well (not a given as he can misbehave), can settle on the speed and plug away.
Against: There are obvious distant queries with this 2000 metre specialist. It’s hard to imagine him having enough in reserve when it gets serious. The wide barrier means juice will be used early. It should soften him up.
Manighar (barrier 21) Price: $35
For: Well there isn’t a more honest horse in the Melbourne Cup. Manighar doesn’t often win but he’s always there in the finish. He was good in the Caulfield Cup running fourth. He finished just out of the placings in the Cup last year. His European form this time in has been good considering luck in running has evaded this grey.
Against: Manighar has to be a 3200 metre query. His strength at the end of the race will test him. The barrier will mean Manighar will probably race backward of midfield. He probably won’t get the charmed run he got at Caulfield this time. Top 10 for sure.
Unusual Suspect (barrier 7) Price: $35
For: In my time following racing you can do a lot worse than back the best run in the Caulfield Cup in the Melbourne Cup. This bloke was it. If you saw the live blog of the Caulfield Cup, I gave this bloke a rough show at 80/1 and he didn’t disappoint. His closing sectionals when running sixth would’ve been the best in the race. Tick, tick, tick.
Against: I went back and had a look at his American form. He is a massive worry to run the two miles. When he won the Hollywood Turf Cup last year, it was a testing 2400 metre affair and there wasn’t much in the locker at the end. He fell in; a true two miler would’ve put the race to bed. If he stays the trip he can win. Otherwise he’s another one for the Top 10.
Fox Hunt (barrier 19) Price: $26
For: This travelling companion for Jukebox Jury certainly isn’t making up the numbers in this race. His European form is good for a race like this. I thought his run in the Goodwood Cup was encouraging considering he lugged 61kgs down the straight. He was terribly unlucky in the Ebor at York after that (the premier staying handicap in England). He meets the winner of the Ebor, Moyenne Corniche, six kilos better here. Don’t leave him out of your multiples.
Against: This bloke is as slow as they come. He takes an age to wind up. He’s going to need good speed and plenty of space in the straight. If it’s a tough slog, I reckon he’ll be in it. I might have backed him with confidence if he had a run here beforehand.
Lucas Cranach (barrier 11) Price: $11
For: I like this bloke so much that if the Freedman’s set him for a race like the Australian Cup next autumn I think he’ll win it.
His turn of foot is rarely seen in European raiders that come here for the Spring Carnival. His run at Caulfield was good. His class could get him home here.
Against: I can’t see this bloke running a strong two miles. I heard his jockey Corey Brown say this morning that he’ll be ridden quieter (waiting for the straight to make a Makybe-Diva like run) and if that’s the case he’s going to need a lot of luck. At the end of the day, I think this guy is too brilliant to win a Melbourne Cup. I’ll take him on here and back him in more suitable races in six months. (I won’t be surprised if Lucas proves me wrong. I think he’s special.)
Mourayan (barrier 14) Price: $17
For: This bloke has improved a furlong in the last 12 months. This time last year he missed qualification for the Cup after getting his tail whipped in the Lexus on Derby Day. He went to the two miles at Sandown a few weeks later and ran a credible third.
This year he has run second in our premier Weight For Age 2400 metre event (the BMW) and ran a bottler in the Mackinnon on Saturday. Back him each-way and prepare to collect.
Against: He did have a month between his last two runs, which isn’t ideal in my opinion. Andrew Bensley reported that the horse pulled a shoe on Saturday and was a little sore afterwards. But he pulled up perfectly the next morning.
Precedence (barrier 2) Price: $35
For: Bart Cummings trains. Bart going for the baker’s dozen – his 13th Cup win. He has Precedence and Illo going for him.
Against: He is going horribly. If Bart didn’t train him he’d be 400/1. Couldn’t win based on his last runs.
Red Cadeaux (barrier 12) Price: $35
For: Red Cadeaux has been running in all the right races against horses like Jukebox Jury, Manighar, Americain, etc. His numbers have been okay. If it rains they reckon he’ll swim – a bit of a duck I hear.
Against: His jockey Michael Rodd spoke about this bloke as if 4000 metres wouldn’t be an issue for him but unless I’m a really bad judge I haven’t seen him finish a two mile race with any strength. 2800-3000 metres hasn’t troubled him but his 3200 metre form is weak. I don’t like this guy because I think they’ll be going past him at the 100 metre mark.
Hawk Island (barrier 18) Price: $71
For: What’s this? An Aussie? Quite rare these days. Hawk Island is a horse I’ve seen go through the grades in Sydney, so it’s nice to see him reach this level. He has two things in his favour: the distance is no problem for him and a wet track would have him frothing at the mouth. If Red Cadeaux is a duck, Hawk Island is a fish.
Against: Form and class. Once upon a time Hawk Island would’ve been a must for trifectas if it was a wet track but the strength of this race means a Top 10 finish is a more realistic aim. He isn’t exactly flying at the moment either.
Illo (barrier 1) Price: $21
For: Bart trains this bloke. His run at Mooney Valley was okay after arriving from Germany. His late sectionals were average though. He’s been well supported to win this.
Against: He’s not really one of Bart’s, having came here late in the piece just a few weeks ago. Bart’s been working overtime to get this bloke right. Apparently he came here light so a balancing act has been happening – put weight on him and make him fit – not easy in a short time. I reckon two miles is beyond him . Couldn’t run it down a well.
Lost In The Moment (barrier 3) Price: $35
For: Has been very well backed. I thought his run in the Goodwood Cup was excellent. Let’s face it, he ran second but with even luck he wins easily. Since then his form has been only fair. A genuine two miler.
Against: I reckon he’s better after one run from a break. He’s first-up in the Cup and it’s the reason I’m not including him in my multiples. If they ran him at Caulfield, I’d be all over him.
Modun (barrier 5) Price: $26
For: The stablemate to Lost In The Moment, Godolphin say he’s their number-one hope. He’s a really promising type too. Only had the eight starts and has won three of them.
Against: This guy is a 2400 metre horse. Probably could’ve won the Caulfield Cup if they ran in it. Can’t see him running the trip. Was there to win the Ebor over 2800 metres and tired. Can’t have him on that basis.
At First Sight (barrier 10) Price: $15
For: He’s run second in the Epsom Derby. You don’t do that unless you’ve got ability. He’s also shown good form in this country. His run behind December Draw in the Naturalism had ‘Cups horse’ written all over it. Massive tip around for him.
Against: He has suffered a setback since the Naturalism. I thought his run at Bendigo was good but it didn’t erase ideas about him struggling to run the 3200 metres. I don’t know if he can do it. Has tired over 2400 as a three year old. Older and stronger now but setback and distance query turns me off him. Much prefer the stablemate Mourayan.
Moyenne Corniche (barrier 17) Price: $26
For: The Ebor winner. Will run a strong two miles. He was good at Caulfield when running third in the Herbert Power. Capable of causing an upset here.
Against: He did win the Ebor but he was given a great ride and he was weighted to win. This time, horses that he beat at York (Modun, Lost In The Moment, Fox Hunt) are weighted to beat him. Top 10 for sure.
Saptapadi (barrier 22) Price: $101
For: His European form has been okay.
Against: Since coming to Australia he has run poorly twice. Too poor to consider here. He has been copping a fair bit of flack. The omission of Bauer from the race is apparently this bloke’s fault. They reckon the trainer shouldn’t have paid up for this.
Shamrocker (barrier 24) Price: $51
For: I reckon he’s a real smoky. Winner of the AJC Derby as a filly – stinks of a good horse. This is her first time past 2000 since the autumn (Efficient of 2007 anyone?). She was encouraging in the Turnbull, lost sight of the bunny in the Cox Plate.
Against: She hasn’t really run a fair-dinkum good race since the autumn. She’s obviously a risk. If a 50/1 pop or better wins, it could be her. She could run last, first, 12th or seventh. God knows.
The Verminator (barrier 4) Price: $101
For: Another Aussie. I remember a cold, windy April afternoon at Canterbury last year, when this bloke ran second to an old favourite of mine, Blueys Way. Never, ever thought he’d make it to a Melbourne Cup. He does carry in okay form. He’s a local, so have a dollar on him.
Against: Not good enough. Simple? Yep.
Tullamore (barrier 12) Price: $26
For: Gai Waterhouse trains. So if running the trip is possible for him, she’ll make sure it happens. His form is faultless. Was great at Caulfield and was fantastic behind Americain at Moonee Valley. Gets a five kilo pull on the Frenchie here. Big show.
Against: Distance, class. He needs to be at his best. Don’t get me wrong he is a big hope but will need things to go right. If you’re anti the Europeans back this ex-Kiwi on an each-way basis. Top 10 for sure.
Niwot (barrier 7) Price: $15
For: If timing and form count for anything then this bloke is huge. Niwot is the Maluckyday of this year’s Cup. He comes here after surviving a near-death experience after blowing a knee 18 months ago – there’s a great story there.
The distance suits and he drinks the mud should it rain. Must have in everything you do. Distance is no problem and Flemington is his favourite place to visit on a Saturday night. Worthy of an each-way ticket.
Against: Class has to be an issue. He has some convictions – he’s been beaten by some average ones in the past but appears to be rising through the grades. Other than that, I could easily recommend him.
Older Than Time (barrier 20) Price: $101
For: She’s in the race and strange things can happen. You can’t win if you’re watching from the paddock.
Against: Couldn’t win if she joined in at the 200. Going hopeless. Needs to grow a leg.
My Top 10:
1. Mourayan
2. Dunaden
3. Americain
4. Niwot
5. Fox Hunt
6. Tullamore
7. Drunken Sailor
8. Manighar
9. Moyenne Corniche
10. Unusual Suspect
Keen to take on: Jukebox Jury, Lucas Cranach, Illo, At First Sight
Have a great Melbourne Cup day!
http://www.theroar.com.au/2011/10/31/melbourne-cup-preview-of-every-chance/
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